Granted Torphichen is hard to assess but he has to be chanced off a mark of 80 given the way he ploughed through the ground LTO. I'm struggling to prove either way if he is well handicapped on maiden form but my gut instinct is that he may've got in light. Especially considering he should improve for the step up in trip. Torphichen 100% of stake 3
Tazeez isn't weighted to reverse form with Ask The Butler but likely to improve on LTO's running as Jimmy Fortune replaces the totally incompetent Martin Dwyer. I cannot stress how bad the latter names jockey is. He is only dual classic winning jockey due to beating the two most unluckiest horses in classics in recent years. (10 pts for anyone who can name them). Presvis is a horse I've had my eye on for some time. Made a mockery of his 72 rating on handicap debut - winning by 9l but was unlucky on his last two starts. Lost his race at the start when 2nd off 78 before suffering terrible luck in running LTO again finishing 2nd (off 87). Up 5lb here but a horse still ahead of the handicapper it seems. I've backed Rose Street on both her starts this season. She ran into the decent Premio Loco FTO before winning easily enough LTO. I've spoke about her ability before on this thread and she looks fairly treated under a 5lb penalty. Samson Son has shown he can win a race this year. Presvis 40% of stake 10 Rose Street 40% of stake 6.8 Tazeez 15% of stake 17.5 Samson Son 5% of stake 70 £10 F/C Comb the top three£10 T/C Comb the top three£3.35 F/C Comb all four£1.65 T/C Comb all four More to come if I get time
No time for write-ups sorry think all are off winnable marks. Rio Guru 35% of stake 17.5 betfiairMontbretia 30% of stake 5.8 Ornella 35% of stake 18 Plus combos
Grane Annee 70% of stake 3.3 Soft Shoe Shuffle 20% of stake 6.2 Electrolyser 10% of stake 12.5 Plus combos
Axiom 60% of stake 6.8 Vainglory 10% of stake 13.5 Light From Mars 10% of stake 12 Oat Cuisine 20% of stake 11 Plus FC comboand TC combo with The Which Docter
Presvis 40% of stake 10 Rose Street 40% of stake 6.8 Tazeez 15% of stake 17.5 Samson Son 5% of stake 70 £10 F/C Comb the top three£10 T/C Comb the top three£3.35 F/C Comb all four£1.65 T/C Comb all four
Three 2nd's so just a small profit on the day on the thread but did well financially. Biggest bet was the 3.20 for me and only had a small bet on Underworld (voiced concerns about going above).
Thanks Ginge. I was at Millwall though so there was no trading in-running for me on Saturday. Now I've seen the races I think I would've been able to get out on Montbretia. Torpichen and Soft Shoe Suffle. I only save at very short in-running so maybe they would've have traded short enough for me.
I believe Prescription is very well handicapped. Was favourite FTO (unusual for a Prescott horse so must've been working well) but was only 8th after running ridiculously green in the maiden won by Siren Party. Stepped up on the effort drastically NTO only 5 days after her debut. She won well by 2l from War and Peace. The runner up was a close 2nd NTO off a mark of 72 and I think the handicapper has been very lenient giving Prescription a mark of just 73 - especially considering connections always leave a bit in hand. Both runs come on easy going and she is by Pivotal so I'm hoping she doesn't need give and will act on the surface. I'm worried less as Prescott's normally carry their form over to the dirt and vice-versa.
She won a like a well handicapped and decent horse at Lingfield and I'm sure there is more to come. Runs off the same mark here so yard have a massive chance of improving their already impressive 3yo record here. Being entered and backed on debut on soft ground winning on g/s and being by Pivotal I'm not worried about the ground. I don't like short priced horses like this though so won't be going mad - I'll have less on that I did last week if I'm honest. Been a fair amount laid at 5/6 or thereabouts on that was generous. Pescription 100% of stake 1.7
Although Boz travelled well LTO he didn't finish the race like a happy horse and I'm not convinced he is the same animal he was in previous months. Blinkers off visor back on suggests the yard are also scratching their heads too. Is such a big price though and so consistent on the dirt so I have to include him here. I gave Walking Talking a mention LTO as he looks well handicapped on his maiden form. He ran well to be 3rd. I'm not as certain as others about how he'll come on for the race as he runs well fresh and Cecil would've had him fit LTO despite a lay-off. Remains interesting and should go close if he don't bounce. Walking Talking 50% of stake 4.9 Boz 25% of stake E/W 20 & 6.2 £16.50 F/C and T/C Combo with Royal Jet
Poker Two is high on my horses to follow the the rest of the season. She was easy to back on her debut drifting from 6/4 to 11/4 was slowly away but still won by 6l with any amount in hand. The 2nd that day. Ocean Legend has run some crackers off mid 70 marks all summer. The 3rd won off a mark of 73. The 4th and 5th beaten 10.5l and 15l respectively have both won handicaps off modest marks. The maiden obviously worked out better than it looked at the time (with regards to those in behind I mean). Poker Two was given a mark of 91 and I thought she was interesting off the mark due to the huge potential shown on debut and I backed her on that handicap debut last month. It was her first start for 7 months and once again she was uneasy in the market - drifting from 7/2 to 11/2. She travelled supremely well throughout but she wasn't really asked early enough for me and found little when eventually asked. To me it was a sure sign of blowing up due to the absence. She looked a certain future winner. Another 42 days off the track since but that is nothing compaired to the seven months of last time and she will surely strip fitter here. I think she'll get away with the drop to 6f and she has a high cruising speed. She has shown enough to suggest she is more than capable of being much better than her rating currently suggests. Poker Two 100% of stake 5.3
Nice winner earlier - been waiting 42 days for her to run! Was over the moon I beat the odds she was 11/4 when I woke up this afternoon. SP of 9/2 though! Bah. Better do a summary before the weekend as there will be a few bets.
Bets: 202Winning Bets: 92S/R: 46%Staked: 201.85Returns: 214.08ptsP/L: +12.23Yield: 6%
One of the trappiest handicaps of the season and the 13.5 the field on is fully justified. Underworld hated the ground last week but was previously unlucky off this mark at Chester. 3/4 at this trip and the mark is no problem - if last week didn't take too much out of him then he must go well and is massively overpriced. Extraterrestial showed he is on the way back to form LTO and despite running over further of late this trip poses no problems. Big Noise has been raised 3lb for recent efforts but he is a horse I've always like and I expected big things from him this season. The mark of 90 is well within his capabilites. He keeps runnnig into well handicapped types. Royal Rock and Premio Loco last season and Kalahari Gold and Riggins this term. Has a big race in him I'm sure. Skhilling Spirit is obviously over priced. Frustrating but should go well in getting away on terms. Run to best form on each his runs here. Big Noise 40% of stake 20/1 Underworld 30% of stake 36 Extraterrestial 25% of stake 29 Skhilling Spirit 5% of stake 38 £8.25 F/C Comb£4.10 T/C Comb
I'm certain there are more races in Victoria Montoya just 4lb higher than her last win - beating Detonator. Ascalon bolted up LTO but has to defy a 13lb hike here. Always showed potential so could go well despite. Thought Whenever was in for a good year but has been disappointing so far. Well handicapped if he can show last season's form. Four Miracles won with a bit in hand LTO and is fairly treated off a 4lb higher mark. Minkowski was placed in last year's Ebor and that was a vintage year - showed nothing over hurdles but could be coming to hand again. Victoria Montoya 45% of stake 5.9 Whenever 20% of stake 10 Ascalon 20% of stake 11.5 Four Miracles 15% of stake 8.8 £5 F/C Combo top three£3.5 F/C Comb all four inc Minkowski£1.65 T/C Comb all four inc Minkowski
I've followed Deep Winter all season and although the handicapper may've caught up with her this time I'll have her on my side till it's proved he has. Nightjar is back up the wieghts - 4lb hike for 2nd LTO but the winner did win again. Surprised he hasn't found a handicap yet and should find one soon. I thouht a mark of 90 was well within Decameron's capabilities but so far things haven't gone his way. Paid the price for chasing the frantic early pace LTO and I've a feeling Chester will suit. Decameron 40% of stake 6.2 Nightjar 40% of stake 6.8 Deep Winter 20% of stake 10 £16.50 FC Comb£16.50 TC Comb
Meshtri was very unlucky LTO a certain future winner off this mark but ground and trip are slight concerns. Always Bold 20% of stake 9.2 Meshtri 50% of stake 4.5 Ozone Trustee 10% of stake 15 Budhist Monk 20% of stake 10 Plus combos
Followed this horse all year and was at home over the trip earlier in the season. He could be fresh after a mid-season break. Musaalem 50% of stake E/W 4/1 gen
Gold Soveriegn has been running well off this mark and knocking on the door. Should appreciate this going more. Gold Sovereign 100% of stake 3/1 lads
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